April 2017 Consumer Confidence Briefing

The monthly UK Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB) undertaken by GfK on behalf of the European Commission* is down 1 point on March at -7. A year ago the measure was -3. Confidence is up in 2 of the 6 regions. Biggest gain is in Northern Ireland, 9 points higher at -7. Sentiment also is 2 points higher at -6 in the Midlands. In the North the measure is unchanged at -8. Elsewhere confidence fell, shedding 6 points in Scotland to -17, 3 points in Wales to -7 and 2 points in the South to -2.
Of the 5 measures comprising the headline measure:

• The financial situation of households over the past 12 months is 1 point lower at +1 compared to March, and 2 points down on April 2016
• The expected financial situation of households over the next 12 months is down 1 point on the month at +2 and 5 points below a year ago (+7)
• The general economic situation measure over the past 12 months shed 2 points to -23 compared to March; 9 points down on April 2016
• The general economic situation measure in the coming 12 months dropped 1 point on the month to -21, and is down 7 points on 12 months ago (-14)
• The measure of consumer sentiment to making major purchases in the current economic situation is up 1 point on the month to +7, and up 2 points on April 2016

The survey also asks other questions about spending and saving. Expected spending on major purchases (such as furniture or electrical goods) in the next 12 months compared with the previous 12 months is unchanged at -6 on the month; 1 point up on 12 months ago.
Peoples’ perception of the saving climate improved in April. 45% of adults regard it as a good time to save, (43%, March, but well down on 49% a year ago). 56% of households are currently saving, 1 point lower on the month and on a year ago. In the next 12 months 57% of adults say they are likely to save, unchanged on March but down from 60% a year ago. Household’s overall financial position (25) weakened in April, down 2 points on the month and on a year ago. It is well above the long-term average (20).
The jobs outlook weakened in April. The measure of unemployment expectations is 4 points worse at +19 on the month and 3 points worse than 12 months ago (+16). A higher score represents rising unemployment expectations. A net balance of 25% of adults (20%, March) believes unemployment will rise in the next 12 months (21% April 2016). The measure of inflation expectations improved a little in April, 2 points better at 90 on the month, but 25 points worse than a year ago (65).